Iraq warns of $300 per barrel oil

The escalating conflict in the Middle East could send the commodity skyrocketing – Foreign Minister

Escalating tensions in the Middle East and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices up to $300 per barrel, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein warned during a phone conversation with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul.

On Friday morning, Israeli jets bombed military and nuclear sites across Iran, kicking off an ongoing exchange of hostilities between the two countries.

According to Hussein, oil prices could surge to between $200 and $300 per barrel “if military operations were to break out, which would significantly increase inflation rates in European countries and complicate oil exports for producing states such as Iraq.”

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transport route, could “result in the loss of approximately five million barrels per day from Gulf and Iraqi oil supplies in the global market,” the Iraqi foreign minister was quoted as saying.

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The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. On Saturday, Iranian MP and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Esmail Kousari stated that Tehran is seriously considering closing the strait to shipping.

Analysts have highlighted the potential impact of such a closure on global oil prices. JPMorgan analysts estimate that in a severe scenario, oil could surge to $130 per barrel. Other experts suggest that a complete blockade could push prices even higher, with some forecasts reaching $300 per barrel.

Brent crude prices rose 7% on Friday to $74.23 per barrel in response to the first attacks. While Israel has not targeted Iran’s main oil export facilities, analysts warn that future strikes could severely impact oil supplies. Conversely, the Islamic Republic could retaliate by disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, in Russia, the head of the Federation Council’s information policy commission, Aleksey Pushkov, has said that the conflict between Israel and Iran could lead to a significant increase in oil prices due to Tehran’s possible blocking of the Persian Gulf.