Trump’s budget would slash 830,000 jobs and raise energy costs by more than $16 billion

President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) bill was a landmark move for the economy. One year after it was signed into law, it had already created more than 170,600 clean energy jobs and spurred private companies to announce at least 210 major new clean energy and clean vehicle projects across 39 states, representing more than $86 billion in investments.

Now the House Republicans’ reconciliation bill is poised to also have a drastic impact on the economy and clean energy landscape, but by gutting the IRA’s gains. Instead of fostering jobs and clean energy development, the bill—which passed the House this week and has now moved to the Senate—could erase those monumental investments and lead to fewer jobs, reduced clean energy capacity, and a drop in the national GDP. 

The GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” will increase some things, experts say, like Americans’ household expenses; it will also give tax benefits to billionaires. “House Republicans just voted to jack up prices, kill jobs, and rip away basic lifelines from working families by taking a sledgehammer to programs and investments that make life more affordable,” Lena Moffitt, executive director of the nonprofit Evergreen Action, said in a statement. “If passed into law, Americans will wake up to find the GOP quietly reached into their wallets and handed their hard-earned cash to corporate polluters and billionaires like Elon Musk and Donald Trump.”

Here’s a look at the impact of the Republican reconciliation bill by the numbers, specifically around jobs, clean energy, and household costs.

The GOP’s reconciliation bill could cost the U.S. more than 830,000 jobs in 2030, according to an analysis from Energy Innovation. (That includes both direct job cuts from less EV production and clean energy manufacturing, as well as indirect losses from higher fuel costs and other economic impacts.)

It would also lead to less new electricity generation, especially at a time when electricity demand is growing. Over the next four years, the bill would decrease additions to new electricity capacity by 302 gigawatts. That’s the same power capacity that the entire U.S. coal fleet had a decade ago. For context, 1 gigawatt can power 100 million LED light bulbs. 

With less new electricity being generated, wholesale power prices will increase about 50% by 2035, particularly because solar and wind are cheaper energy sources than fossil fuels. Across all American households, consumer energy costs will increase by more than $16 billion in 2030, and by more than $33 billion by 2035. “This increase happens even if oil and gas production rise and help reduce fossil fuel prices, as envisioned by the bill,” Energy Innovation notes. Between 2026 and 2034, the bill would cumulatively reduce the national GDP by nearly $1.1 trillion.

For individual households, that could mean a $110 increase to electricity costs per year, beginning in 2026, which could then rise to $290 more in annual energy costs per household by 2035.

The GOP bill will drive up household costs for Americans in other ways, too. The price of gasoline will increase between 25 and 37 cents per gallon, which, on the higher end, would mean more than $200 per year for the average gas vehicle. Without the IRA’s EV tax credits, Americans will also essentially see the cost of electric vehicles go up by at least $7,500 (and for used EVs, $4,000). 

The Republican bill also eliminates a tax credit for energy-efficient home improvements like heat pumps and water heaters. That credit has so far allowed households to save up to $990 each year on their utility bills, but Americans will now miss out on those savings. 

The bill has broader impacts on emissions and how climate change will worsen. Without tax credits to spur investments in clean energy and efficient appliances, the bill could increase greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 130 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030—like adding 30 million gas-powered cars to the road for one year. By 2035, that could grow to nearly 260 million metric tons, equivalent to the annual energy use of nearly 35 million homes—or the entire annual CO2 emissions from Spain.

With more emissions and air pollution come more deaths. According to Energy Innovation, that could mean nearly 350 additional premature deaths annually by 2030, and nearly 670 more every year by 2035.

Many of these impacts will be concentrated in Republican states. The IRA was a huge boon to Republican districts: In just two years, it added nearly 200,000 clean energy jobs and more than $286 billion in clean energy investments to congressional districts represented by Republican House members. Now those districts will likely see job losses and less economic investment because of their Republican representatives’ votes. “In their crusade to rig the system for their fossil fuel backers,” Moffitt said prior to the House bill passing, “it’s people living in Trump states—their own voters—who will pay the steepest price: lost jobs, higher energy costs, and missed economic opportunities.”