U.S. Refining Capacity Holds Steady: What It Means for Small Businesses

The latest statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveal that the U.S. economy’s refining capabilities have largely stagnated, with a notable atmospheric distillation capacity of 18.4 million barrels per calendar day reported on January 1, 2025. This static figure represents critical insights for small business owners reliant on fuel and petrochemical products, providing a clearer view of future costs and supply chain dynamics.

For small business owners, understanding refinery capacity is essential as it directly influences fuel prices and availability—factors vital for businesses that rely heavily on transportation, logistics, or machinery powered by petroleum. With recent findings indicating minimal growth in refinery capacity, owners should anticipate continued fluctuations in fuel prices, potentially making budgeting for fuel expenses increasingly challenging.

“U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity totals 18.4 million barrels per calendar day, essentially flat compared to last year,” stated the EIA. This report digs deeper by distinguishing between two critical measures of refinery output: calendar day capacity and stream day capacity. Calendar day capacity accounts for operational downtime and maintenance, while stream day capacity reflects maximum output under ideal conditions, and is typically about 6% higher than its counterpart.

In 2025, the three largest U.S. refiners—Marathon, Valero, and ExxonMobil—saw calendar day capacity increases of less than 1%. Such incremental changes hint at minor process improvements rather than robust expansions, a departure from the more dramatic shifts seen in previous years. For small businesses, this means fewer opportunities for decreased costs brought about by increased supply, potentially resulting in elevated prices at the pump.

The Motiva Port Arthur refinery, reclaiming its title as the country’s largest single refinery based on barrels-per-calendar-day, reported increased throughput, yet maintained its stream day capacity at previous levels. Marathon’s Galveston Bay refinery still leads on a barrels-per-stream-day basis, highlighting a competitive environment within the refined products market.

The report notes another significant industry change, as LyondellBasell has ceased operations at its Houston refinery, further narrowing the industry landscape. Although this development wasn’t captured in the recent report due to timing, the implications for supply tightness could play a role in increased fuel costs in the near term.

For small business owners, adapting to these trends becomes increasingly important. Rising costs could compel businesses to modify operations, whether by seeking alternative fuel sources or increasing efficiency in transportation logistics. Moreover, any shifts in capacity should encourage owners to stay in regular contact with suppliers to understand market dynamics and plan budgets accordingly.

A noteworthy aspect of the 2025 report is the introduction of Pasadena Performance Products, a new facility near Houston that exclusively produces alkylate—a blending component for motor gasoline. This innovative approach, utilizing natural gas liquids instead of crude oil refining, represents a potential model for future facilities seeking to adapt to the evolving energy landscape. As the industry shifts toward cleaner fuels and sustainability, small business owners should remain vigilant of how these changes may offer new opportunities or create challenges in sourcing materials.

Understanding this EIA report is especially vital as it reflects structural changes in the U.S. refining sector, such as the lack of major expansions or transactions since January 2024. This stagnation may exacerbate existing concerns regarding fuel supply and pricing, impacting a wide range of businesses dependent on energy.

As small business owners navigate the evolving landscape outlined in the EIA’s latest findings, staying informed and agile will be key. With static refinery capacity alongside rising operational costs, proactive planning and regular engagement with industry trends will enable small businesses to find their footing in an increasingly complex market.

For further details, small business owners can access the full report via the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s website at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65624.

This article, "U.S. Refining Capacity Holds Steady: What It Means for Small Businesses" was first published on Small Business Trends