The battle for Orlando: How Epic Universe could impact Disney World theme park attendance

It’s been over 60 years since Walt Disney took a fateful flight over an undeveloped section of Central Florida and decided that he wanted to put a sprawling theme park there. Today, the Orlando metro area is the most-visited destination in the United States, with its tourism industry generating an economic impact of more than $92 billion in 2023.

Disney’s namesake company, of course, no longer has that balmy playing field all to itself. For decades, it’s competed with Universal Studios for its share of Orlando tourists—a fierce rivalry that hit a new plateau last month with the opening of Universal Epic Universe, a 750-acre mega-park that comprises five distinct “worlds,” including those based on popular intellectual property such as Harry Potter and Nintendo.

Epic Universe marks Orlando’s first major theme park 25 years, opening a new front in the battle between Disney and NBCUniversal owner Comcast to win the hearts, minds, and dollars of the region’s park-goers.

A big question looming over the opening of Epic Universe is how it will impact the decisions of tourists and families who plan to visit the Orlando area now and in the coming years. Will more families forego the notably family-friendly Disney World in favor of what Epic has to offer—or will Universal’s new park simply siphon off visitors who would have otherwise attended another Universal park?

One way to predict future trends is by looking at past park openings, known in the industry as “gates,” according to Carissa Baker, an assistant professor at the University of Central Florida and a longtime researcher of theme parks.

“What we have seen in the past is that there is a bit of cannibalization from the parks that the existing company has,” Baker told Fast Company. “So even when Disney has opened their newer gates, there is sometimes a little bit of drop-off from their existing gates, because most guests are not going to do every single park in Orlando in one single visit.”

The Florida projects

Orlando attracted 75.2 million visitors last year, according to the Visit Orlando tourism association. That’s an increase of 1.8% over the year before, and nearly even with pre-pandemic highs. Most of the area’s visitors come from elsewhere in the United States, while more than 30% are Florida residents.

Although inflation and more recent economic instability could have a negative impact on overall visitor growth in the years head, one thing Orlando’s theme parks have going for them is that families tend to plan their vacations long in advance.

“These are destination parks,” Baker said. “The average family doesn’t go to these parks every year.”

In a research note on May 22, analyst firm MoffettNathanson expressed doubts about a substantial impact to Disney from Epic Universe, although the impact won’t be negligible, either.

The firm estimates that Epic could see 5.2 million visitors this year and 9.2 million next year, compared to an estimated 54.9 million for Disney during both years. It projects a modest year-over-year decrease in Universal’s other parks, from 18.9 million in 2025 to 18.4 million in 2026.

In other words, Disney’s attendance is projected to be flat while Universal will see a bump from Epic, at least initially. “Given strong early reception during previews and solid forward bookings guidance, we think Epic is off to a strong start,” MoffettNathanson analysts wrote.

Both companies have invested heavily in theme parks in recent years. In 2023, the Walt Disney Company announced it would double its capital expenditures for its Parks, Experiences, and Products segment to roughly $60 billion over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, NBCUniversal spent more than $10 billion on new and existing Universal destinations in California, Florida, Texas, and Nevada between 2018 and 2024, according to Comcast.

Crucially for Disney, the firm also pointed out how Epic Universe’s Nintendo and How to Train Your Dragon worlds could appeal to families with younger children, a demographic traditionally ruled by Disney. “Comcast’s ambition is clearly to take share of vacation time with these families,” the analysts wrote.

Baker, who had already been to Epic Universe seven times when we spoke earlier this month, said its appeal with visitors was perhaps most obvious with the immersive Super Nintendo World, which further leverages a successful decade-long partnership between Universal and the video game maker. Similarly themed worlds are already up and running in theme parks in Japan and California.

“It’s very, very popular,” Baker said. “People are just covered in Nintendo merchandise . . . Every time I’ve been in there, it’s been quite crowded.”